Publications

    The Chinese Economy: Sectors and Prospects

    Hao Chen, February 2024

    The future of the Chinese economy has sparked extensive discussions in both academia and the policy community. Opinions among China specialists are varied; some believe the economy is in the midst of a severe cyclical downturn, while others maintain that a sharp decline is unlikely. There are also those who believe it is still too early to tell.

    Indeed, China is experiencing a trend of economic slowdown. After joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s economy grew at a dazzling pace; the average growth rate of China’s gross domestic product from 2001 to 2012 was 10.25%. However, since Xi Jinping came up in spring 2013, the average annual growth rate has dropped to 6.22%, plummeting to only 3% in 2022. So, which sectors have been most affected by this economic slowdown? And what are the future prospects of the Chinese economy?

    Jail-Based Voting in the District of Columbia: A Case Study

    Tova Wang, February 2024

    While many people are aware of the restrictions formerly incarcerated individuals face in voting, few know about the challenges faced by another group of incarcerated citizens: people in pretrial detention and those incarcerated for misdemeanors. Despite having the right to vote, incarcerated persons often confront challenges in registering and/or voting while being held. In the last few years, organizers, election administrators, and corrections staff in a handful of jurisdictions have taken an innovative approach to address this problem, making the jail an early vote center and setting up a polling place right in the facility.

    The District of Columbia is one of the first jurisdictions to do this, and their success with the program can inform the efforts of policymakers, election administrators, jail staff, and organizers to put similar programs in place and successfully implement them in other jurisdictions. This case study tells the story of Washington, D.C., through the eyes of those who have been directly involved. It presents the evolution of jail voting in the district, what it took to get it to happen, the logistics of its successful implementation, the challenges it has presented, and how different stakeholders in the process have made it work. It demonstrates that providing incarcerated people with a true opportu- nity to vote is not overly burdensome and is something they will enthusiastically participate in. Furthermore, it suggests that the voting experience may have positive impacts on the voters that could carry over into future elections.

    “This Ancient Atrocity”: The Return of Child Labor in the United States: Why Now? What Should be Done?

    David Weil, December 2023 

    We tend to think of child labor in factories as a thing of the past. However, child labor in the US is surging with recent investigations and reporting finding violations in meat processing, automobile, packaged food and seafood manufacturing. In several cases, children as young as 14 have been exposed to chemicals, dangerous machinery and long hours (often working in the middle of the night). In this policy brief, David Weil examines the causes for this upsurge and connect it to the confluence of three forces: the presence of a large pool of unaccompanied minors in the US awaiting asylum decisions; labor shortages arising from the post-pandemic recovery; and the widescale use of “fissured” business models relying on contracted workforces in all of the recent cases. Given these causes, Weil reviews steps that can be taken under the federal law (the Fair Labor Standards Act) that regulates child labor as well as review potential revisions of that law to prevent future violations.

    Democracy and Authoritarianism in the 21st Century: A sketch

    Grzegorz Ekiert, December 2023  

    In recent years significant academic attention has been devoted to the phenomenon of democratic backsliding characterized by assault on the rule of law, attempts to steal elections, and efforts to subjugate the judicial system and control free media. Yet, parallel political developments affecting hybrid and authoritarian regimes have by and large been neglected. This related process can be described as dictatorial drift and implies the transition from “soft” forms of authoritarian rule to hard core authoritarian policies characterized by the concentration of executive power, the destruction of political institutions such as fair elections, independent judiciary, free media, and autonomous civil society organizations, and worsening political repressions. This paper describes both democratic backsliding and authoritarian drift and argues that each are to a significant degree demand side phenomena: in countries undergoing such changes, significant parts of the electorates support anti-liberal and authoritarian policies. These two processes are illustrated by political developments in formerly communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe and in Central Asia.

    Mini-Public Selection: Ask What Randomness Can Do for You
    Flanigan, Bailey, Paul Gölz, and Ariel Procaccia. 2023. “Mini-Public Selection: Ask What Randomness Can Do for You”. View full text Abstract

    Bailey Flanigan, Paul Gölz, Ariel Procaccia, November 2023

    Deliberative mini-publics convene a panel of randomly selected constituents to deeply engage with complex policy issues. This essay considers the process of selecting the members of this panel, with a particular focus on the central role of randomness in this process. Among other benefits, this random- ness confers legitimacy by affording all members of society some chance of participation. The main constraint placed on this selection process is representativeness—the requirement that the resulting panel accurately reflects the demographic and ideological makeup of the population. Within this constraint, there is a vast space of possible ways to randomly choose a panel, and each method spreads the random chance of selection differently across willing participants. In this essay, we explore approaches for inten- tionally designing this randomness to promote specific goals, such as increasing fairness, transparency, non-manipulability, and richness of representation in mini-publics.

    Public-Private Partnerships in the Thailand Medical Tourism Industry

    Gumporn Supasettaysa, September 2023 

    Patients frequently travel across international borders to seek health care in Southeast Asia. This practice, known as medical tourism, has grown rapidly in Thailand in recent years. In this Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia policy brief, Gumporn Supasettaysa argues that to take the next step and continue to grow the medical tourism industry, Thailand must expand the partnership between the government and private hospitals to include airports, airlines, and logistics companies, fully supporting the patient journey and providing end-to-end care. 

    An Aspirational Path for American Conservatism
    Goldsmith, Stephen, and Ryan Streeter. 2023. “An Aspirational Path for American Conservatism”. Read the full working paper Abstract

    Stephen Goldsmith and Ryan Streeter, September 2023

    In this working paper, Stephen Goldsmith and Ryan Streeter argue that the Republican Party is philosophically adrift, and it has been for a while. This is not only bad for the Party’s political future but bad for the country and its democracy by depriving voters of meaningful choice in ideas, they argue. The United States’ socioeconomic progress over the past 250 years, however uneven, can be attributed to the interplay of competing ideas on how to achieve progress. Central to the competition is how we understand individual rights and responsibilities, fairness and justice, and the definition of progress itself. When our political parties lose their ability to articulate governing principles and resort instead to defining themselves as the opposite of their enemies, the competition of ideas stagnates—and so does the condition of the country.

    Goldsmith and Streeter describe an alternative ideological path, aspirational conservatism, which is populist in spirit while rejecting the view that American institutions no longer offer upward mobility for ordinary individuals. It is pro-opportunity for grassroots doers and makers, such as shop owners, small-scale entrepreneurs, and new business owners with aspirations to grow. It is pro-worker in its focus on boosting wages by modernizing training, increasing access to the fastest-growing sectors for skilled work, and removing job barriers that have accrued over time. Additionally, it strikes a healthy balance by upholding the character and values inherent in American institutions and celebrating the diverse viewpoints and lifestyles that share those core values.

    The authors make the case for conservative governance that is respectful of its citizens, supportive of America’s underlying values, mindful that significant challenges remain, and aware that good politics and good policy require an effective government that helps individuals achieve their aspirations.

    China’s Most Generous: Examining Trends in Contemporary Chinese Philanthropy (2020 Update)

    Edward Cunningham and Yunxin Li, August 2023

    This report on elite philanthropy presents the latest findings from the Harvard Kennedy School Rajawali Foundation Institute’s China Philanthropy Project and provides insight into current trends among China’s major donors and recipients.

    The China Philanthropy Project research team reviewed reports and articles covering over 7,000 foundations, over 1,200 charitable organizations, and nearly 3,000 universities in China. Throughout this process, they collected data on more than 17,000 donations made in 2020, accounting for 44 percent of China’s total estimated national giving. In the report, they then focus on the nearly 6,000 donations valued over RMB 1 million (USD $0.14 million), resulting in over 4,000 unique donors analyzed.

    Civic Engagement in Somerville: Joe Curtatone’s Story of How Community Activism Powered a Remarkable Urban Renaissance

    Joseph Curtatone and Andrew Tolve, April 2023

    Under the leadership of Mayor Joe Curtatone, Somerville, Massachusetts achieved one of the most remarkable stories of urban transformation in recent American history. Once derided by Bostonians as “Slumerville” due to its broken transportation system and high levels of poverty, crime, and corruption, Somerville is now a thriving city. It has new metro lines, vibrant neighborhoods, a diverse population, and innovative zoning and housing initiatives. Coupled with its newfound hipster credentials, it’s earned a reputation as the Brooklyn of Boston. None of this would have been possible without Somerville’s bold and innovative approach to civic engagement.

    In this case study, the former mayor of Somerville, Joe Curtatone, reflects on his 18 years in office and illuminates the many ways in which civic engagement enabled Somerville’s renaissance. The mayor offers intimate, behind-the-scenes accounts of the Assembly Square development, Green Line extension, and Shape Up Somerville program, which helped inspire Michelle Obama’s nationwide “Let’s Move!” campaign. Curtatone is a self-described innovation junky, who thrived on taking risks and implementing participatory policies that made his administration as transparent and inclusive as possible. The case details breakthrough programs in civic engagement, including ResiStat, SomerVision, and SomerViva, while also acknowledging setbacks and the resulting improvements.

    “There is no blueprint for civic engagement,” says Curtatone, “but hopefully by sharing the principles and practices that Somerville implemented, other leaders can learn how to improve civic engagement in their own communities.”
     
    China's Most Generous: Examining Trends in Contemporary Chinese Philanthropy (2019 Update)

    Edward Cunningham and Yunxin Li, March 2023  

    This annual report highlights leading results from the most recent data analysis of the Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center’s China Philanthropy Project. Our team gathered 2019 data on over 20,000 donations from 7,166 foundations, 1,220 charitable organizations, and 2,597 universities in China. To focus on elite giving, we further refined our analysis to 4,434 donations of over RMB 1 million (US$0.14 million), given by 4,070 unique donors. The resulting report on top individual, corporate, and organizational philanthropy provides an important view into current trends among China’s major donors and recipients.

    In 2019, elite Chinese giving:

    1. was dominated by large organizations (most commonly corporations) rather than individuals,
    2. supported in large part central government policy priorities in the areas of education and poverty alleviation, and
    3. remained fairly local in scope.
    Antiracist Institutional Change in Healthcare
    Muhammad, Khalil Gibran, and Angel Rodriguez. 2023. “Antiracist Institutional Change in Healthcare”. Read the full report Abstract

    Khalil Gibran Muhammad and Angel Rodriguez, March 2023

    COVID-19 and the 2020 wave of racial justice demonstrations in the United States moved many healthcare organizations to enact antiracist change goals. Yet, many of these commitments lacked effective strategies and accountability mechanisms.

    IARA conducted a one-year study of existing antiracist interventions in healthcare organizations and a review of authoritative evidence for institutional accountability.

    Key Findings:

    IARA’s pioneering case studies indicate five key organizational levers necessary to close racial disparities in healthcare outcomes and produce long-term sustainable institutional transformation:

    • Buy-in and continued engagement from leadership
    • A shared understanding and use of explicit language to define structural racism
    • Effective organizational infrastructure
    • Clearly defined metrics
    • Building internal capacity and professional development
    Economic and Social Impacts of Restrictions on the Applicability of Federal Indian Policies to the Wabanaki Nations in Maine

    Joseph Kalt, Amy Besaw Medford, and Jonathan B. Taylor, December 2022 

    For at least the last several decades, federal Indian policy in the US has supported tribal self-determination through tribal self-government. The results have been (1) remarkable economic growth across most of Indian Country, and (2) concomitant expansions of the responsibilities and capacities of tribal governments. Hundreds of tribes across the other Lower 48 states now routinely serve their citizens with the full array of governmental functions and services that we expect from non-Indian state and local governments in the US, and increasing numbers of tribes are the economic engines of their regions.

    Unique to Maine, the federal Maine Indian Claims Settlement Act of 1980 (MICSA) empowers the state government to block the applicability of federal Indian policy in Maine. As a result, the development of the Wabanaki Nations’ economies and governmental capacities have been stunted. Today, all four of the tribes in Maine—Maliseet, Mi’kmaq, Passamaquoddy, and Penobscot—are stark economic underperformers relative to the other tribes in the Lower 48 states.

    The subjugation of the Wabanaki Nation’s self-governing capacities is blocking economic development to the detriment of both tribal and nontribal citizens, alike. For the tribal citizens of Maine held down by MICSA’s restrictions, loosening or removing those restrictions offers them little in the way of downside risks and much in the way of upside payoffs.

    Importantly, we find in this study that “nowhere to go but up” also applies to the Maine state government and Maine’s non-tribal citizens. From case after case, the pattern that has emerged under federal policies of tribal self-determination through self-government is one in which tribal economic development spills over positively into neighboring non-tribal communities and improves the abilities of state and local governments to serve their citizens. As is the case with any neighboring governments, conflicts can arise between tribal and non-tribal governments. The overall experience outside of Maine in this regard has been that increasingly capable tribal governments improve state-tribal relations by enabling both parties to come to the table with mature capacities to cooperate. Against these upside prospects is a status quo in which all sides leave economic opportunities on the table and ongoing cycles of intergovernmental conflict, litigation, recrimination, and mistrust continue.

    The World’s Best-Kept Financial Inclusion Secret Revealed: The Untold Success Story of BRI Microbanking Since 1895

    Jay Rosengard, November 2022 

    Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Indonesia People’s Bank, has been the most successful promoter of financial inclusion in Indonesia since the country declared independence in 1945. 

    BRI’s first major financial inclusion initiative was the 1970 creation of a nationwide network of BRI “unit desas,” or village units, for channeling Bimas (Mass Guidance) agricultural credit. The primary objective of Bimas was to promote national self-sufficiency by bringing the Green Revolution to Indonesia. However, by the 1983–84 planting season, successful rice farmers no longer needed Bimas support, leaving only marginal and failing farmers in the program.

    BRI thus began its microbanking metamorphosis and rebirth with painful adjustment and slow adaptation, subsequently laying the foundation for dramatic growth and rapid expansion. Three principal policy changes turned unit desas from marginally useful, extremely costly entities that had outlived their initial mission into profitable rural banks providing vital financial services: 1) transformation of unit desas from Bimas conduits to full-service rural banks; 2) internal treatment of unit desas as semi autonomous units of account (discrete profit/loss centers); and 3) evaluation of unit desas based primarily on their profitability rather than on hectares covered or money lent. BRI has built on its successful commercialization of microbanking in the mid-1980s to grow, broaden, and deepen its microbanking business over the past three decades. 

    BRI faces two significant future challenges if it is to remain a profitable and effective global leader and national driver of financial inclusion. First, it must continue to evolve and adapt amidst an increasingly difficult political and economic environment. This is indeed a formidable challenge but one BRI has successfully met since Indonesia declared independence in 1945. However, the second challenge facing BRI is even more daunting. While continuing to navigate the treacherous waters of well-intentioned but counterproductive national policies that threaten to undermine past accomplishments in financial inclusion, BRI must also manage a transition back to sustainable, market-based microbanking.

    Considerations for Federal and State Landback
    Jorgensen, Miriam, and Laura Taylor. 2022. “Considerations for Federal and State Landback”. Read the full report Abstract

    Miriam Jorgensen and Laura Taylor, October 2022 

    This policy brief showcases how geographic information system (GIS) techniques can be used to identify public and/or protected land in relation to current and historic reservation boundaries, and presents maps showcasing the scope of landback opportunities.

    These lands include federal- or state-owned or managed land within current external reservation boundaries; within former reservation boundaries; near or abutting current reservation land; and protected areas designated for conservation management (which can include land held in fee).

    The sentiment to give all U.S. national park landback to the stewardship of Indigenous Peoples is gaining momentum. These areas indeed may provide a cohesive set of initial opportunities towards that aim, and can lean on management or co-management agreements in strategic areas that present win-win solutions for both public agencies and American Indian nations in expanding their footprint.

    While historically the laws that diminished reservations were intended to create opportunities for private ownership and settlement by non-Indigenous people, it is in fact the case that, 140 years later, six federal agencies currently manage approximately one-third the land that had been within former reservation boundaries.

    A quarter of land just outside of present-day reservation boundaries (within a 10-mile buffer) is managed by one of six federal agencies, largely made up of the Bureau of Land Management (11%) and the Forest Service (11%).

    Identifying where these parcels are, especially in relation to current or former reservation land, is a powerful first step for tribes and government agencies to begin to develop strategies for landback. Making this information more accessible will help streamline the process.

    What to Expect from the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

    Tony Saich, September 2022

    On October 16, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene its 20th Party Congress. Held every five years, the Congress is a critical event. While nothing is seriously debated there, the symbolic function of the Congress is extremely important. It summarizes past achievements and sets out future objectives, all while displaying an outward power and unity. The Congress brings together just over 3,000 delegates from the provinces, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and some central agencies for about a week to approve the report of the General Secretary, amendments to the party statutes, and any other documents placed before them. In theory, this sets in motion the appointment of a new leadership by electing candidates to the Central Committee (around 200 members and 150 alternates). In reality, the Congress approves the slate proposed by the outgoing Political Bureau (Politburo) and senior leader- ship. In turn, the Central Committee elects members of the Politburo, its Standing Committee, and the Secretariat, again based on lists provided after the Party leadership has finished haggling.

    This Congress will be special, as General Secretary Xi Jinping seeks a third term as political leader (either as general secretary or party chairman), confirms his place and ideas even more concretely within the party statutes, and seeks to appoint a leadership cohort drawn from his associates. Below, I provide my best guesstimates on his chances of reappointment, the leadership structure, and indications for future policy trends.

    Ensuring All Votes Count: Reducing Rejected Ballots
    Altamirano, Jose, and Tova Wang. 2022. “Ensuring All Votes Count: Reducing Rejected Ballots”. Abstract

    Executive Summary

    This brief studies trends in mail ballot rejection rates in 2020 compared to previous years and how different factors, including sets of policies and policy changes, the political environment, and voter outreach, may have contributed to these changes in an extraordinary election year. Our main findings include:

    • Mail ballot rejection rates decreased in most states in 2020 compared to 2018, and a number of states saw a consistent drop from 2016 to 2018 to 2020.
    • Certain states that adapted their voting laws to make mail voting more accessible in 2020, particularly in the South, saw especially pronounced changes in rejection rates.
    • In North Carolina, rejection rates vary from county to county. Previous studies of other states’ rejection rates found similar trends.
    • States that implemented mail ballot policies, including ballot curing, increased ease of access when returning mail ballots at boards of elections, early voting sites, drop boxes, and ballot tracking, saw lower rejection rates than those that didn’t, though we caution against assuming a causal relationship.
    • Previous academic and advocacy research suggests that voters of color, young voters, and first-time voters are disproportionately more likely to have their mail ballots rejected.

    We highlight these trends and suggest further areas of study that researchers, advocates, organizers, and policymakers can explore to better understand how voters casting their ballots by mail can ensure their votes are counted.

    Download the PDF

     

    Strengthening Models of Civic Engagement: Community-Informed Approaches to Inclusive and Equitable Decision-Making

    Archon Fung, Hollie Russon Gilman, and Mark Schmitt; July 2022

    For too long the federal policymaking process has been mysterious and inaccessible to everyone but the most sophisticated, elite stakeholders. Not only has this made the policymaking process exclusive to long-standing players with connections and resources, but it has also made it extremely difficult for most Americans, especially those from underrepresented communities, to be engaged in authentic ways with federal agencies and institutions.

    The costs of such exclusion are evident: Federal policies created and implemented without meaningful input from local leaders and residents are less efficient, less effective, and more likely to perpetuate the very systems of injustice they are often designed to disrupt or reverse. In contrast, inclusive engagement demonstrably increases the efficacy and legitimacy of federal policy, triggering a virtuous cycle of feedback and trust between government and the people.

    When the Biden-Harris administration took office, one of their very first acts was to issue an executive order to advance equity and racial justice throughout federal agencies and institutions. This was quickly followed by orders intended to transform the experience of interacting with government, modernize the federal regulatory process, and strengthen tribal consultations and nation-to-nation relationships. Together, these efforts push the executive branch to improve equity and racial justice through more inclusive policy processes.

    Reflecting on a Year of Promises: A Conference Assessing Organizational Antiracism Journeys

    The annual Truth and Transformation Conference is convened by Professor Khalil Gibran Muhammad and hosted by the Institutional Antiracism and Accountability (IARA) Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Ash Center. This is the third installment of the conference, which began in 2019 and was established to focus on drivers of antiracist change in private, public, and academic institutions.

    During this free virtual conference, the IARA team invited fellow advocates, organizers, scholars, students, and community members to engage in challenging and thoughtful conversations centered around the 2021 theme “Reflecting on A Year of Promises.”

    This year’s event focused on examining the prior year of institutional promises and publicly stated intentions to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion in the United States and globally in the wake of the “George Floyd” moment in American history. This year our organizers asked; Did organizations keep their promises? What more work is there to be done to follow through on these public commitments?

    The conference was organized in four parts around the question; How does historical reflection and reckoning move the public conversation and lead to policy and institutional change?

    In the opening Institute of Politics Forum, Professor Muhammad was joined by a leading scholar and practitioner, Dr. Ibram X. Kendi and Heather McGhee, to discuss ways to understand and measure change at this moment. The opening panel situated the conference and theme in a historical and con- temporary context that served as a reminder that the history and politics of racism must be viewed in tandem as mechanisms to measure change.

    Three additional panels featured leaders in academia and professional practice in discussion on transformative change beyond performative statements into actionable, institutional shifts. The first panel examined the validity of an economic argument for improving diversity and brought insights to the discussion from bankers, economists, and philanthropic directors. The second panel emphasized the importance of board membership as a conduit for enacting or inhibiting organizational change in relation to equity and inclusion. The final panel challenged the notion of risk as a measuring tool for organizational change and offered alternative perspectives on ways to identify and value humanity in the work across industries.

    The conference and its proceedings serve to remind us that if we are truthful about racism in our politics and policy making, then we must accept that it has a cost for all of us.

    Taiwan: A Risk Analysis Through the Lens of Hong Kong
    Kwok, Dennis W. H., and Johnny Patterson. 2022. “Taiwan: A Risk Analysis Through the Lens of Hong Kong”. Read full text Abstract

    Dennis W.H. Kwok and Johnny Patterson, May 2022

    This paper aims to provide an overall risk analysis of the Taiwan Strait situation by using Hong Kong’s experience over the past three decades as a point of comparison. The authors focus on three areas where those watching Taiwan can learn from Hong Kong. Since Deng Xiaopeng’s rule, Hong Kong and Taiwan have been inextricably intertwined, with China intending to reunify both territories using the “one country, two systems” formula. There are, of course, fundamental differences between the situations in Taiwan and Hong Kong. But there are also many similarities from which one can draw useful lessons. In the past three decades, Hong Kong tried to preserve its liberal democratic values whilst coexisting under an authoritarian regime. Hong Kong’s experience proved that a liberal democratic society cannot survive alongside an increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime. Taiwan essentially faces the same dilemma.

    Hong Kong offers four key insights: First, Hong Kong provides a window through which to understand the modus operandi of Xi Jinping’s CCP. Political priorities trump all others —while CCP actions make sense within the system, they may confuse outsiders. Ultimately, Xi’s words should be taken literally and seriously. Second, the failure of the “one country, two systems” formula and Hong Kong’s collapse should not be lost on Taiwan. The so-called “United Front” tactics and the political polarization that occurred in Hong Kong are being emulated in Taiwan, with the Kuomintang’s (KMT’s) platform feeling increasingly untenable and anachronistic, especially in light of Hong Kong’s experience. Third, the infiltration of Mainland capital into Hong Kong over the past two decades has changed the underlying structure of Hong Kong as a business and financial center. The effect of ‘red’ capital made local Hong Kong and international business voices irrelevant. The authors saw their ability to influence and thereby moderate government policies waned over the years—leading to disastrous consequences for Hong Kong. Finally, Hong Kong has changed the geopolitical landscape in ways that have profound ramifications for Taiwan and how the international community perceives the CCP. The CCP openly walked back on an international treaty registered with the United Nations. The response of the international community and businesses reveals important lessons about the West’s vulnerabilities to this kind of geopolitical shock should the situation over the Taiwan Strait worsen.

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