Publications

    The Chinese Economy: Sectors and Prospects

    Hao Chen, February 2024

    The future of the Chinese economy has sparked extensive discussions in both academia and the policy community. Opinions among China specialists are varied; some believe the economy is in the midst of a severe cyclical downturn, while others maintain that a sharp decline is unlikely. There are also those who believe it is still too early to tell.

    Indeed, China is experiencing a trend of economic slowdown. After joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s economy grew at a dazzling pace; the average growth rate of China’s gross domestic product from 2001 to 2012 was 10.25%. However, since Xi Jinping came up in spring 2013, the average annual growth rate has dropped to 6.22%, plummeting to only 3% in 2022. So, which sectors have been most affected by this economic slowdown? And what are the future prospects of the Chinese economy?

    Vietnam: Navigating a Rapidly Changing Economy, Society, and Political Order
    Perkins, Dwight, and Borje Ljunggren, ed. 2023. Vietnam: Navigating a Rapidly Changing Economy, Society, and Political Order. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Learn more on the publisher's site Abstract

    Börje Ljunggren and Dwight Perkins, June 2023 

    In the late 1980s, most of the world still associated Vietnam with resistance and war, hardship, refugees, and a mismanaged planned economy. During the 1990s, by contrast, major countries began to see Vietnam as both a potential partner and a strategically significant actor—particularly in the competition between the United States and an emerging China—and international investors began to see Vietnam as a land of opportunity.

    Vietnam remains a Leninist party-state ruled by the Communist Party of Vietnam that has reconciled the supposedly irreconcilable: a one-party system and a market-based economy linked to global value chains. For the Party stability is crucial and, recently, increasing economic openness has been combined with growing political control and repression.

    This book, undertaken by scholars from Vietnam, North America, and Europe, focuses on how the country’s governance shapes its politics, economy, social development, and relations with the outside world, as well as on the reforms required if Vietnam is to become a sustainable and modern high-income nation in the coming decades.

    Despite the challenges, including systemic ones, the authors remain optimistic about Vietnam’s future, noting the evident vitality of a determined society.

    Read the introduction 
    The World’s Best-Kept Financial Inclusion Secret Revealed: The Untold Success Story of BRI Microbanking Since 1895

    Jay Rosengard, November 2022 

    Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Indonesia People’s Bank, has been the most successful promoter of financial inclusion in Indonesia since the country declared independence in 1945. 

    BRI’s first major financial inclusion initiative was the 1970 creation of a nationwide network of BRI “unit desas,” or village units, for channeling Bimas (Mass Guidance) agricultural credit. The primary objective of Bimas was to promote national self-sufficiency by bringing the Green Revolution to Indonesia. However, by the 1983–84 planting season, successful rice farmers no longer needed Bimas support, leaving only marginal and failing farmers in the program.

    BRI thus began its microbanking metamorphosis and rebirth with painful adjustment and slow adaptation, subsequently laying the foundation for dramatic growth and rapid expansion. Three principal policy changes turned unit desas from marginally useful, extremely costly entities that had outlived their initial mission into profitable rural banks providing vital financial services: 1) transformation of unit desas from Bimas conduits to full-service rural banks; 2) internal treatment of unit desas as semi autonomous units of account (discrete profit/loss centers); and 3) evaluation of unit desas based primarily on their profitability rather than on hectares covered or money lent. BRI has built on its successful commercialization of microbanking in the mid-1980s to grow, broaden, and deepen its microbanking business over the past three decades. 

    BRI faces two significant future challenges if it is to remain a profitable and effective global leader and national driver of financial inclusion. First, it must continue to evolve and adapt amidst an increasingly difficult political and economic environment. This is indeed a formidable challenge but one BRI has successfully met since Indonesia declared independence in 1945. However, the second challenge facing BRI is even more daunting. While continuing to navigate the treacherous waters of well-intentioned but counterproductive national policies that threaten to undermine past accomplishments in financial inclusion, BRI must also manage a transition back to sustainable, market-based microbanking.

    Policy Memo Regarding the Allocation of COVID-19 Response Funds to American Indian Nations
    Akee, Randall K.Q., Joseph P. Kalt, Eric C. Henson, and Miriam Jorgenson. 2020. “Policy Memo Regarding the Allocation of COVID-19 Response Funds to American Indian Nations”. Read the full memo text Abstract

    The COVID-19 crisis poses an immediate threat to three decades of improvement in economic conditions across Indian Country. Federal policies of tribal self-determination through self government have gradually, if unevenly, allowed economic development to take hold in Indian County. Nevertheless, the poverty gap for American Indians is large and hard to close. American Indian/Alaska Native household incomes remain barely half that of the typical household in the US. Tribes now routinely undertake and self-fund the full array of basic governmental services – from law enforcement and public safety to social services and educational support – that we expect any state or local government to provide.

    Tribes lack the traditional tax bases enjoyed by state and local governments. Tribal enterprise revenues – both gaming and non-gaming – are tribes’ effective tax bases. Prior to the total shutdown of their casinos, tribes’ gaming enterprises alone were channeling more than $12.5 billion per year into tribal government programs and services . No tribal casinos are operating at this time. The same applies to many non-gaming enterprises and many tribal government programs. The COVID-19 crisis is devastating tribes’ abilities to fund their provision of basic governmental services and forcing tribes to make painful decisions to lay off employees, drop workers’ insurance coverage, deplete assets, and/or take on more debt.