Publications

    David Dapice, November 2017

    How rapidly will or could demand for power grow in Vietnam? What will interest rates be? Will the cost of generating plants go up or down, and by how much? What will the cost of each fuel be? Will the cost of carbon or other pollution begin to enter into investment decisions?

    This paper will examine these questions. It will begin by looking at demand projections and investments in efficiency – getting more output per kilowatt hour used. It will then try to estimate the costs of building and running various types of generating plants in Vietnam over time. It will also use various costs of carbon to see if including these both as a source of global warming and as an indicator of local pollution changes the calculation. Changes in the domestic supply of gas will also influence the set of potential solutions, as will the declining costs of solar electricity and battery storage. In all of this it is the system or mix of investments that need to work, not any single investment.

    “For Vietnam, success is a choice.“ This sums up the verdict delivered by the Center’s Vietnam Program to the government of Vietnam in early 2008. In a country accustomed to outpourings of praise from multilateral donors for its economic performance, the sobering assessment was headline news. On January 15, 2008, a Vietnam Program delegation headed by Director Tom Vallely met with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in Hanoi, and presented him with this report. The paper was written in response to a request from Prime Minister Dung that the Vietnam Program conduct a critical analysis of Vietnam’s socioeconomic development strategy for the period through 2020.

    Vietnam Program, August 2006 

    This report records the findings of a mission to Cambodia sponsored by the UNDP and UNICEF. The objective of the mission was to assess the present state of education in Cambodia and to make recommendations for how new investment might be used effectively to promote continued reform through institutional innovation. The mission was convened against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Cambodia over several PL-480 “humanitarian“ loans made to the government of Lon Nol (1970-1975). There is bipartisan interest in the U.S. Congress in allocating these payments to support Cambodia's continued development. It has been suggested that if and when Cambodia agrees to a repayment scheme, the United States government might use these repayments to endow a special vehicle to support education in Cambodia.