The Global Impact of the United States Election

As people around the world continue to debate, reflect on, and dissect what many are calling the most important election of our lifetime, the Harvard Kennedy School’s Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation convened a panel of faculty experts to discuss the global implications of Trump’s victory, including its potential ripple effects on sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, China, and the broader state of democracy worldwide.

Tarek Masoud, Ford Foundation Professor of Democracy and Governance at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), moderated the discussion, which featured political scientists and analysts including Dr. Gloria Ayee, Anthony Saich, Erica Chenoweth, and Jay Rosengard.

Masoud opened the event by remarking on how “the lives of people all around the world are impacted profoundly by what happens in Washington. I’m a scholar of the Middle East, and in my conversations with folks in the Arab world about this election, I observed a level of intensity of interest and concern that matches anything that you might see on this campus or elsewhere in the United States.”

What could this mean?

For some, Trump’s unconventional leadership represents an opportunity to bring an end to long-standing conflicts. For others, his unpredictability raises concerns that it could deepen global instability and heighten tensions. The Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war are arguably among the most pressing global issues, involving nearly every country to some degree, especially the United States. But other critical issues include foreign policy agendas, human rights, economic policy, and trade agreements, just to name a few.

During the event, panelists noted that President-elect Donald Trump is regarded by some countries as a highly unpredictable and unusual American president. So, what will this mean for America’s role in the world? Could this second chance at a presidency serve as a rebranding for the country?

Masoud posed similar questions: “The United States is known as an indispensable nation, deeply involved in everything everywhere,” he stated. “Sometimes for good, sometimes for ill. Or will we turn inward? Will we withdraw behind the vast oceans that separate us from much of the rest of the world and leave that world to the tender ministrations of China or others who might try to fill America’s shoes?”

Economic alliances in Africa

Throughout the conversation, the panelists reiterated that the world had drastically different views of what the incoming Trump administration could mean, depending on the country in question.

Dr. Gloria Ayee, adjunct lecturer in public policy at HKS and a lecturer (government and international relations) at the Harvard Extension School, drew on her expertise in sub-Saharan African politics throughout the event. She explained that African leaders had mixed responses to Trump’s reelection, explaining, “In the immediate aftermath of the election, several African leaders actually extended their congratulations to President Trump.”

Ayee noted that those congratulations were based on hopes of continued and potentially expanded cooperation between their nations and the United States. Leaders from nations including Kenya, Nigeria, North Africa, and Egypt expressed their desire for strengthened diplomatic and economic relations during Trump’s second term, recognizing the importance of maintaining strong ties with the United States.

However, Ayee recognized that not all reactions were favorable. Some nations remain wary, especially given their experiences under Trump’s previous administration.

Ayee also described how Trump’s “America-first” policies raise concerns about future U.S. commitments to Africa, with some fearing that strategic interests may outweigh aid objectives. There’s anxiety about potential cuts in economic assistance and a reduced focus on multilateral cooperation, which could undermine global efforts on issues like climate change, peacekeeping, and health initiatives that directly impact African nations.

Similarities to Southeast Asian leaders

Like African countries, Southeast Asian countries have mixed feelings about Trump’s leadership, according to Jay Rosengard, adjunct lecturer in public policy and chair of the Indonesia Public Policy Program at the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia.

“President-elect Trump’s fondness for autocrats actually bodes well for many Southeast Asian countries,” he said, comparing Trump to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, who also faced criminal charges. “And although President Prabowo has denied all of these alleged crimes and has never been tried or convicted on these charges, he was dishonorably discharged from his own army after the fall of [Indonesia’s former dictator] Suharto, and he was banned from entry in the United States for 20 years until President-elect Trump lifted the ban during his first administration.”

Rosengard further elaborated on the ties that bind the United States and President Prabowo, who received his military training in the United States and has also visited President-elect Trump. “In terms of diplomatic and security relations, it is likely current policies will continue because the strategic interests of the United States and Southeast Asia remain, and that’s most importantly balancing China’s military threat with U.S. security ties.”

Rosengard believes that Trump’s personal business investments in Indonesia, including real estate projects in West Java and Bali, contribute to his positive stance toward the country, placing Indonesia in a favorable position with the administration.

One standout issue, of course, is the continuously strained relationship between the United States and China. “In terms of economic relations, President-elect Trump’s animosity toward China, coupled with multinationals’ efforts to strengthen supply chain resiliency, and their China Plus One investment strategy, I think offers several Southeast Asian countries an opportunity to be that plus-one nation for foreign direct investment,” added Rosengard.

Additionally, China may relocate some of its domestic manufacturing to Southeast Asia to bypass punitive trade tariffs. While there are potential opportunities in Trump’s anticipated foreign policy, these positive outcomes come with certain risks and uncertainties.

Tony Saich, director of the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs at HKS, also highlighted Trump’s fluctuating relationship with President Xi Jinping of China and how it could impact those same global relations.

He went on to say, “And even though a Harris and Trump administration would’ve been equally tough on China, I think it’s quite clear that [with] Trump, [it] will be much harder to determine what he’s going to do and develop counterstrategies.”

In China, some have an even more dire outlook. “The other phrase which was supportive of Trump winning was a phrase in Chinese, which means ‘Trump the builder of our nation,’” explained Saich. “And what [was] meant by that was not the builder of the American nation, but he would be so chaotic and catastrophic that he would destroy the American nation, which would inevitably lead to the rise of the Chinese nation.”

Another key issue in U.S.-China relations under Trump is Taiwan. Taiwan, for its part, has historically relied on U.S. military and diplomatic backing, which many experts consider vital to America’s Pacific defense strategy. However, Trump has raised doubts about the value of this relationship, urging Taiwan to boost its own defense spending and comparing U.S. support to an “insurance policy.” Trump has also criticized Taiwan for allegedly siphoning U.S. semiconductor business.

While Saich emphasized that China is prepared for the challenges of a new U.S. administration, having already dealt with trade tensions during Trump’s first term, Rosengard cautioned that much remains uncertain. “The caveats are that no one really knows what President-elect Trump will actually do, try to do, or what he will actually be able to do once he’s in office.”

Is what you see what you get?

A few panelists compared Trump’s image and leadership style to other world leaders, which could make some view him favorably. Masoud stressed that when it comes to the President-elect, it’s the old saying of “what you see is what you get.” Rosengard added, “He shoots straight and really tries to do what he says he is going to do, so they kind of know what they are getting.”

“Prabowo won by a landslide,” he continued. “He won by so much, there wasn’t even a runoff. He got almost 60% of the votes, and you’re trying to figure out, how can this accused war criminal have a landslide across all demographics? And like Trump, he presents an image of a strong man, strong ruler, man of convictions, and they kind of have gravitated toward that model of strong firm leadership.”

Democratic backsliding

Erica Chenoweth, academic dean for faculty development and Frank Stanton Professor of the First Amendment at HKS, highlighted the broader democratic implications of Trump’s reelection, pointing to its coinciding with a global decline in democracy. Chenoweth explained that many emerging democracies have backslid, while even established democracies face challenges to their stability.

Some of America’s closest democratic allies, particularly in Europe, are alarmed by certain U.S. foreign policy actions, Chenoweth continued. Specifically, the prospect of a U.S.-backed peace settlement in the Ukraine-Russia war that favors Russia’s interests over Ukraine’s is particularly unsettling to many democratic leaders. “For the United States to change course and say, ‘you know what, we’re not going to continue to support either the sovereignty or the democratic aspirations of our democratic ally, but instead are going to choose the side of an autocratic government that’s also a geostrategic rival from the U.S.’ understandably gives our European allies now a lot of jitters,” said Chenoweth.

Domestically, Trump’s proposals to restructure federal agencies and cut back on foreign aid and diplomatic missions could undermine the infrastructure that supports democratic development abroad. At the same time, the rise of populism and anti-establishment sentiments continues to reshape global politics.

Chenoweth also suggested that Trump’s cabinet picks could provide insights into his priorities for global relations. By considering who he is placing in key positions, we can better understand the President-elect’s inclinations and priorities.

But no matter where you are in the world, the effects of November 5, 2024, are enormous, and its global ramifications will be seen very soon, for better or for worse. “I think the most optimistic thing I heard in this discussion is we’ll have to wait and see,” said Masoud. “So maybe there is some optimism in that uncertainty. I actually am fairly optimistic. I think the forces of good will win out, both in this country and abroad.”